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Preparing for the UNFCCC Cop 15 Conference in Copenhagen Resistance Magazine, Fall 2009 Issue Since the 1960s, public awareness and concern over the human-caused destruction of the earth has significantly grown. Today, leading global scientific organizations are unilaterally in agreement over the reality of global warming and the dire necessity of international action to curb the release of greenhouse gas emissions. Yet global leaders, backed by industry, have not thus far taken this threat seriously. United Nations Climate Chief Yvo de Boer desires to change this reality with the COP15 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen this December. The purpose behind the Copenhagen meeting is to negotiate a new UN climate treaty that will replace the Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012. But the road to Copenhagen has been a bumpy one with internal disagreements airing between the rich G8 nations and the less or newly industrialized countries. At issue are the emissions cuts that each nation is prepared to make and how those differ from the recommendations set forth by leading scientific experts including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was established by the UN Environment Program (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to be the world's leading scientific body to evaluate and present the most current data pertaining to the threats facing the environment. In 2007, the IPCC recommended that by 2020 all governments must cut emissions 25 - 40 percent of those in 1990 to avoid global warming beyond two degrees Celsius. The G8 nations agreed in September that the average global temperature shouldn't increase by more than two degrees Celsius, however they simultaneously ignored the IPCC's recommendation of the necessity of short-term action to make this goal feasible. As December quickly approaches, there continues to be a stalemate. The wealthy G8 nations are refusing to abide by the IPCC's recommendation that they cut emissions 25 - 40 percent of 1990 levels by 2020, while attempting to pressure poor countries into higher emissions reduction. Any progressive outcome of the COP15 conference is highly dependent on this disagreement becoming resolved. History In 1992, the United Nations held its first international environmental policy conference, called the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, or "Earth Summit." Its origins occurred two years earlier, when the UN's General Assembly began working on a climate change convention sparked by the IPCC's first synthesis report that was released the same year. The IPCC's report proclaimed that there was a real risk that human activities, particularly coal, gas, and oil consumption, could dangerously affect the earth's environment. Taking place in Rio de Janeiro, the 1992 conference was created as a result of the IPCC's warning. The effort resulted in 154 countries signing the first international agreement to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases: the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Since that time, 192 countries have ratified the convention and it became legally binding on March 21, 1994. For the past fifteen years, the UNFCCC has held an annual conference of the parties, with the goal being to stabilize the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at levels that will prevent human-caused climate changes and catastrophic consequences. As it became clear the UNFCCC annual conference on its own was not inspiring necessary changes to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the convention was expanded in 1997 to include the Kyoto Protocol. Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol represented the first time an international agreement was reached on how much industrialized countries should cut greenhouse gas emissions. Adopted at the COP3 conference in Kyoto in 1997, the Protocol set a binding target for emissions reductions for 37 industrialized countries in addition to the European Union. These countries committed themselves to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 21% in relation to 1990 levels. The European Union agreed to reduce its emissions by 8% in relation to 1990. A group of countries that originally ratified the UNFCCC, including the United States, refused to ratify and take part in the Kyoto Protocol. The Bush Administration reportedly believed that the conditions of the Kyoto Protocol would harm the U.S. economy, and therefore refused to sign. While the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997, its details would take another four years to work out. At the COP7 conference in Marrakesh in 2001, the details were agreed upon and included what were called "flexible mechanisms." The purpose of the flexible mechanisms was to supplement each countries' or their individual companies' own reductions in CO2. Where in the world the reduction in emissions would occur was not necessarily specified due to its irrelevance for the climate and the flexible mechanisms took advantage of this vagueness. Using flexible mechanisms, a country and its companies could decide to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases where it was most cost efficient. There are three flexible mechanisms at operation in the Kyoto Protocol: 1) International Emissions Trading: Each of the ratified countries to the protocol were issued emissions permits, allowing the countries to emit only the set amount of pollution as detailed in the protocol. If a country ends up with a surplus of credits, they were able to sell them to one of the other countries. 2) Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM): CDM credits are reductions in specific, concrete projects that were not required to reduce emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. These pertain to projects performed in poorer, less industrialized or newly industrialized countries as the protocol only was specifically geared towards industrialized nations. 3) Joint Implementation (JI): JI credits are reductions in specific, concrete projects that were performed in countries bound to reduce emissions under the protocol. These pertain to projects primarily performed in Russia and Eastern Europe. Though the details of the Kyoto Protocol were agreed upon in 2001, it wasn't until February 16, 2005 that the necessary level of support was attained. This required that only 55 of the countries that ratified the UNFCCC had to ratify the protocol. The protocol is in effect from 2008 - 2012. As of 2009, 182 countries have accepted the Kyoto Protocol, but the United States still has refused involvement. Second now to only China in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, the United States' refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol has sent a clear signal globally that it is not interested in environmental protection or the dangers of climate change. Will Copenhagen Succeed? The goal behind the Copenhagen COP15 conference is to establish a new global agreement that will follow up the Kyoto Protocol, set to expire in 2012. The IPCC most recent report stated that the earth's average temperature has risen by 0.74 degrees in the period of time between 1906 and 2005. This warming is strongest in the north, and is stronger over land areas than sea. Simultaneously, there have been increased occurrences of violent downpours and heat waves, the ice at the world's poles and on its mountains is melting, and ocean levels have risen. The IPCC has warned that emissions of greenhouse gases must be reduced globally 25-40 percent by 2020 to reduce the chances of catastrophic affects on the planet. The December meeting in Copenhagen is crucial and represents the last opportunity to come to an agreement prior to the Kyoto Protocol expiration. In 2007, the UNFCCC held the COP13 annual conference in Bali, Indonesia where the Bali Action Plan was established. The Bali Action Plan acknowledged, based on the fourth synthesis report published by the IPCC, that human-created global warming was real and that delays in our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would increase the risk of worse consequences. It also recommended that the speed of the greenhouse gas emissions reduction is increased and adopted a global long-term agreement to replace the Kyoto Treaty upon its expiration. This new agreement was set to occur at the COP15 conference this year in Copenhagen. However, as the COP15 draws nearer, disputes between the wealthy G8 nations and poorer countries have threatened to derail any positive outcome in Copenhagen. Industrialized nations want poorer, less industrialized countries to commit to greenhouse gas emissions reductions and the poorer nations are refusing to commit until the wealthy nations fulfill their own responsibilities. During UN Climate Change talks this year in Bonn, Italy, the G8 countries agreed on cutting global emissions by 50 percent by 2050 and on reducing emissions in rich countries by 80 percent. However, countries such as China, India and Brazil believe more short-term targets are needed to make the G8 nations' promise trustworthy. And the poorer countries' insistence is sufficiently supported by the IFCC recommendations. The United States has responded that it is not feasible for the G8 nations to cut greenhouse emissions by 2020 to 25-40 percent of 1990 levels. While the practicality and possibility of such cuts in the wealthier nations is not in question, the barrier continues to come from industry and corporate economic interests that continue to prioritize monetary gain over the health and welfare of the planet, humans, and animals. IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri has criticized the wealthy G8 nations for refusing to act to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 in line with the IPCC's recommendations. Stating the eight countries "clearly ignored" IPCC's findings and recommendations, Pachauri believes the G8 nations should have accepted the IPCC's findings that greenhouse gas emissions must peak no later than 2015 and significant action needs to be taken between now and 2020. Leading scientists believe that doing so may help the planet avoid more severe consequences of climate change including food shortages, widespread drought, floods, higher sea levels, and stronger storms. Most of the developed, wealthy countries have only promised to reduce emissions between 15 and 21 percent of 1990 levels by 2020, cuts far below the IPCC's recommendations. United States Special Envoy for Climate Change, Todd Stern, stated at the conclusion of the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate held in Mexico in June, "The 40 percent below 1990 (levels) is something, which in our judgment, is not necessary and not feasible given where we're starting from, so it's not in the cards." The Obama Administration in the United States appears to be rejecting the lucid warning by the IPCC, the premiere international scientific body on climate change. Unless the rich, industrialized nations agree to conform to the warnings and recommendations of the IPCC and promise to cut emissions from greenhouse gases 25-40 percent of 1990 levels by 2020, poorer countries will refuse to make concessions towards a new agreement to follow up the Kyoto Protocol. While it is unclear what the specific outcome of the COP15 in Copenhagen will be, it appears as though the conference will be comprised of another example of the wealthy leaders prioritizing their own corporate agendas at the expense of their citizens, of poorer countries, and of the planet. As catastrophic evidence of climate change is already present around the world, at what point will our leaders awaken to the necessity of swift and immediate action? What can be expected from COP15? United Nations Climate Chief Yvo de Boer is hoping that December's conference in Copenhagen will yield answers to four specific essentials: 1) How much are the industrialized countries willing to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases? 2) How much are major developing countries such as China and India willing to do to limit the growth of their emissions? 3) How is the help needed by developing countries to engage in reducing their emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change going to be financed? 4) How is that money going to be managed? Major Players to Watch in Copenhagen United States: Has said it and other G8 leaders supported a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent or more by 2050, but has only agreed to reduce short-term emissions by 14 percent of 2007 levels, nowhere near IPCC's recommendations. Russia: The third largest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind China and the U.S., has promised to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions 10-15 percent below 1990 levels, far lower than the IPCC's recommendations. New Zealand: Agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions 10-20 percent below 1990 levels, far lower than IPCC's recommendations. India: May refuse to enter into any agreement unless rich countries agree to reduce emissions to IPCC recommended levels. Mexico: Accounts for 1.5 percent of global emissions. Intends to bring a plan of proposed cuts to Copenhagen. President Felipe Calderon plans to cut 50 million tons of annual emissions by 2012. It is unclear what percentage below 1990 levels Mexico will commit to by 2020. China: Currently the largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions. Agrees with India and other developing countries in wanting to see the wealthy, industrialized nations commit to short term goals in line with IPCC's recommendations.
SIDEBOX Global Poll: According to the University of Maryland's Program on International Policy and Attitudes, 73 percent of people globally want to make climate change a top priority. In a survey that drew on data gathered from academic and marketing polling organizations in respective countries, 15 out of 19 governments have strong support from their citizens to take more action to stop climate change. Seventy-seven percent of people in Great Britain are asking for more action. The three populations with the lowest percentages of support for climate change action include the United States. According to the poll, only 44 percent of U.S. citizens want more action from their government to curb global warming. |